匯豐上調評級力挺依視路陸遜梯卡 智能眼鏡市場迎爆發預期

近日，多家媒體披露科技巨頭Meta計劃在2026年底前，將旗下Ray-Ban聯名AI眼鏡的年產能提升一倍，最終衝刺2000萬件規模。這一激進擴張背後，是該產品持續超預期的市場表現：2025年全年銷量預計達400萬至500萬台，佔據全球AI眼鏡市場83%的絕對主導份額，成為消費級AI硬體領域的現象級產品。伴隨產能擴容，Meta還將推出運動款、全彩螢幕高端型號等新品，進一步覆蓋多元消費場景。

Meta敢於大幅擴容，核心底氣來自產品的市場爆發力與公司戰略資源的集中傾斜。這款2023年底上市的Ray-Ban Meta智能眼鏡，僅用一年多時間就站穩腳跟，2025年銷售額年增超過兩倍。其成功關鍵在於解決了早期智能眼鏡的痛點：整合Meta AI大模型，支援即時翻譯、圖像識別等實用功能，同時重量控制在48.6克、最長續航32小時，實現了技術實用性與佩戴體驗的平衡。

戰略層面，該眼鏡已成為Meta「AI驅動＋硬體載體」轉型的核心抓手。公司2025年資本支出計劃達660億至720億美元，年增幅超過68%，大量資金投向AI基礎設施與硬體研發；旗下Reality Labs業務重心也從元宇宙轉向AI硬體，Ray-Ban Meta眼鏡被明確為增長核心引擎。Meta創辦人祖克柏此前強調，AI眼鏡是承載新技術、覆蓋數十億用戶的關鍵終端，此次產能翻倍既是應對當前需求，也為未來發展預留空間。

Meta的產能擴張計劃，正引發全球供應鏈的連鎖反應，國內企業憑藉技術積累在核心環節佔據重要地位，有望分食千億市場蛋糕。從供應鏈結構看，AI眼鏡的核心競爭力集中在光學顯示、智能交互等領域，國內企業已形成差異化優勢。光學顯示領域，歌爾股份獨家供應Ray-Ban Meta的光波導模組，良率超過80%；水晶光電的碳化矽光波導通過Meta下一代產品認證，2025年上半年相關訂單年增150%。智能交互環節，恒玄科技的晶片佔據Meta供應鏈70%份額，2025年出貨量超過1000萬顆。此外，長盈精密的鈦合金框架、德賽電池的續航解決方案等，也成為供應鏈不可或缺的組成部分。供應鏈數據顯示，Meta已於2025年8月向核心供應商加單20%，僅高通AR1晶片提貨量就預計達1200萬顆。

值得注意的是，AI眼鏡賽道的機遇背後仍暗藏風險。一方面，Meta旗下Reality Labs業務累計虧損已超過580億美元，2025年多季度單季虧損仍超過44億美元，AI眼鏡規模化生產需持續投入，盈利週期尚不明確。另一方面，隨著小米等國內廠商加入戰局，市場競爭將逐步加劇，2000萬件產能目標能否消化仍存在不確定性。此外，歐盟反壟斷監管壓力、供應鏈波動等因素，也可能影響產能落地與市場擴張節奏。

HSBC Upgrades Rating to Support EssilorLuxottica, Smart Glasses Market Poised for Explosive Growth
Recent reports indicate that tech giant Meta plans to double the annual production capacity of its co-branded Ray-Ban AI glasses by the end of 2026, aiming for a final target of 20 million units. Behind this aggressive expansion lies the product’s consistently better-than-expected market performance: estimated sales of 4 to 5 million units in 2025, capturing an 83% dominant market share of the global AI glasses market, making it a phenomenon in consumer AI hardware. Alongside capacity expansion, Meta will also launch new products such as sports models and high-end full-color display models, further covering diverse consumer scenarios.

Meta’s confidence in this significant capacity expansion stems from the product’s market explosive power and the company’s concentrated strategic resource allocation. Launched at the end of 2023, the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses quickly established a foothold in just over a year, with sales in 2025 increasing more than twofold year-on-year. The key to its success lies in addressing the pain points of early smart glasses: integrating the Meta AI large model to support practical functions like real-time translation and image recognition, while keeping weight at 48.6 grams and achieving a maximum battery life of 32 hours, striking a balance between technical practicality and wearing comfort.

Strategically, the glasses have become the core lever for Meta’s “AI-driven + hardware carrier” transformation. The company’s 2025 capital expenditure plan ranges from $66 billion to $72 billion, an annual increase of over 68%, with substantial funds directed toward AI infrastructure and hardware R&D. The focus of its Reality Labs division has also shifted from the metaverse to AI hardware, with Ray-Ban Meta glasses clearly positioned as the core engine of growth. Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg has previously emphasized that AI glasses are the key terminal for carrying new technologies and reaching billions of users, and this capacity expansion is both a response to current demand and a reservation of space for future development.

Meta’s capacity expansion plan is triggering ripple effects throughout the global supply chain. Domestic companies, leveraging their technological expertise, are occupying important positions in core segments and are poised to share in the billion-dollar market opportunity. Looking at the supply chain structure, the core competitiveness of AI glasses is concentrated in areas such as optical displays and smart interaction, where domestic companies have formed differentiated advantages. In optical displays, Goertek exclusively supplies the optical waveguide modules for Ray-Ban Meta, with a yield rate exceeding 80%; Crystal Optech’s silicon carbide optical waveguides have passed certification for Meta’s next-generation products, with related orders growing 150% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. In the smart interaction segment, Bestechnic’s chips hold a 70% share of Meta’s supply chain, with shipments exceeding 10 million units in 2025. Additionally, components such as Lingyi iTech’s titanium alloy frames and Desay Battery’s power solutions have become indispensable parts of the supply chain. Supply chain data shows that Meta placed an additional 20% in orders with core suppliers in August 2025, with Qualcomm AR1 chip pickups alone expected to reach 12 million units.

It is worth noting that behind the opportunities in the AI glasses track, risks remain hidden. On one hand, Meta’s Reality Labs division has accumulated losses exceeding $58 billion, with quarterly losses still exceeding $4.4 billion in multiple quarters of 2025. The large-scale production of AI glasses requires sustained investment, and the profitability timeline remains unclear. On the other hand, as domestic manufacturers like Xiaomi enter the fray, market competition will gradually intensify, and whether the 20 million-unit capacity target can be absorbed remains uncertain. Furthermore, factors such as EU antitrust regulatory pressure and supply chain fluctuations may also affect the pace of capacity implementation and market expansion.

Summary:
HSBC is bullish on the smart glasses market as Meta plans to double Ray-Ban AI glasses capacity to 20M units. 2025 sales are estimated at 5M units, benefiting Taiwanese supply chain companies. However, Meta’s cumulative losses exceeding $58 billion pose ongoing risks.